Hertha Zehlendorf U19 0–2 Hansa Rostock U19

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Hansa Rostock U19

T. Krohn 72', 18'

4/2/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - Preliminary Round - 2Ernst-Reuter-Sportfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Hertha Zehlendorf U1944%

×Draw20%

Hansa Rostock U1936%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha Zehlendorf U19Expected goals in this matchHansa Rostock U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.34

2.10

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.34

Hansa Rostock U19

2.10

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 58 away

2.27

creates per match

1.84

2.36

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.27

Hansa Rostock U19

1.84

allows per match

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.36

Hansa Rostock U19

2.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha Zehlendorf U19+0.00on par

Hansa Rostock U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 ↓

Hansa Rostock U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 or draw

64%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 or Hansa Rostock U19

80%

Draw or Hansa Rostock U19

56%

Winning margin

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 wins by 2+

26%

Hansa Rostock U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 1+ goals

90%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 2+ goals

67%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 3+ goals

41%

Hansa Rostock U19 1+ goals

88%

Hansa Rostock U19 2+ goals

62%

Hansa Rostock U19 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Hansa Rostock U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 at home — creates 2.27, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

Hansa Rostock U19 away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.41 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 attack 2.27 + Hansa Rostock U19 defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.34

Hansa Rostock U19 attack 1.84 + Hertha Zehlendorf U19 defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 scores more

44%

level

20%

Hansa Rostock U19 scores more

36%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hertha Zehlendorf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

T. Krohn

46'

G. Didoss← E. Akova

46'

L. Zdep← E. Schiffner

46'

L. Bera← R. Bauer

46'

N. Schulz← M. Szybora

60'

Mahdi Mohammadi← M. Venohr

72'

T. Krohn

76'

J. Nnaemeka-Chukwurah← M. Kolenda

76'

L. Ugbogbo← J. Hartl

76'

L. Labenz← M. Hauer

84'

L. Stoldt← T. Fürstenau

Hertha

Hansa

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Siebert

46'▲G. Didoss←▼E. Akova

46'▲L. Zdep←▼E. Schiffner

76'▲J. Nnaemeka-Chukwurah←▼M. Kolenda

76'▲L. Ugbogbo←▼J. Hartl

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 substitutes

DidossZdepNnaemeka-ChukwurahUgbogboAhmadNoack

Manager: C. Rahn

46'▲L. Bera←▼R. Bauer

46'▲N. Schulz←▼M. Szybora

60'▲Mahdi Mohammadi←▼M. Venohr

76'▲L. Labenz←▼M. Hauer

84'▲L. Stoldt←▼T. Fürstenau

Hansa Rostock U19 substitutes

BeraSchulzMohammadiLabenzStoldtMaurerKelm