Hertha Zehlendorf U19 4–5 Hamburger SV U19

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha Zehlendorf U19Expected goals in this matchHamburger SV U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

2.23

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.04

Hamburger SV U19

2.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 79 away

2.27

creates per match

2.10

2.36

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.27

Hamburger SV U19

2.10

allows per match

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.36

Hamburger SV U19

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha Zehlendorf U19+0.00on par

Hamburger SV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 ↓

Hamburger SV U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 or draw

57%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 or Hamburger SV U19

80%

Draw or Hamburger SV U19

64%

Winning margin

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 wins by 2+

20%

Hamburger SV U19 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 1+ goals

87%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 2+ goals

60%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 3+ goals

33%

Hamburger SV U19 1+ goals

89%

Hamburger SV U19 2+ goals

65%

Hamburger SV U19 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Hamburger SV U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 at home — creates 2.27, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

Hamburger SV U19 away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.81 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 attack 2.27 + Hamburger SV U19 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.04

Hamburger SV U19 attack 2.10 + Hertha Zehlendorf U19 defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 scores more

36%

level

20%

Hamburger SV U19 scores more

43%

Hamburger SV U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hamburger SV U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

E. Appiah

27'

M. EnkeOwn goal

40'

H. Muqaj

45+1'

G. Didoss

49'

J. KiloPenalty

62'

T. Koczulap← T. Fron

64'

N. Wallenßus

65'

A. Soliman← M. Kolenda

65'

S. Akova← H. Muqaj

67'

A. da Graça Marques← O. Megeed

67'

B. Lamce← N. Wallenßus

74'

M. Görlitz

78'

Fábio Baldé← E. Appiah

88'

J. Nehl← J. Kilo

88'

P. Srougbo← L. Butkovic

90'

A. da Graça MarquesOwn goal

90+2'

A. da Graça Marques

Hertha

Hamburger

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Kilo

⚽

▼

Appiah

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

🥅

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Muqaj

Manager: M. Siebert

62'▲T. Koczulap←▼T. Fron

65'▲A. Soliman←▼M. Kolenda

65'▲S. Akova←▼H. Muqaj

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 substitutes

KoczulapSolimanAkovaKarikaNnaemeka-ChukwurahNoackBöge

Manager: O. Kirch

67'▲A. da Graça Marques←▼O. Megeed

67'▲B. Lamce←▼N. Wallenßus

78'▲Fábio Baldé←▼E. Appiah

88'▲J. Nehl←▼J. Kilo

88'▲P. Srougbo←▼L. Butkovic

Hamburger SV U19 substitutes

MarquesLamceBaldéNehlSrougboCeesayBöhmker

Match Recap: Hertha Zehlendorf U19 vs Hamburger SV U19

Hamburger SV U19 beat Hertha Zehlendorf U19 5-4 in U19 Bundesliga on February 25, 2023.

Goals: E. Appiah (17'), M. Enke (27' o.g.), H. Muqaj (40'), G. Didoss (45+1'), J. Kilo (49' pen), N. Wallenßus (64'), M. Görlitz (74'), A. da Graça Marques (90' o.g., 90+2').

The match was played at Ernst-Reuter-Sportfeld in Berlin.

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 vs Hamburger SV U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hertha Zehlendorf U19 vs Hamburger SV U19