Hertha Zehlendorf U19 1–2 Dynamo Dresden U19

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Dynamo Dresden U19

A. Millgramm 69'

C. Bräunling 90+3'

L. Ehrlich 51'

2/11/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 13Kunstrasenplatz Ernst-Reuter-Sportfeld KR6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Hertha Zehlendorf U1941%

×Draw21%

Dynamo Dresden U1938%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha Zehlendorf U19Expected goals in this matchDynamo Dresden U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.96

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.02

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 80 away

2.27

creates per match

1.55

2.36

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.27

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.55

allows per match

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.36

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha Zehlendorf U19+0.00on par

Dynamo Dresden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 ↓

Dynamo Dresden U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 or draw

62%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 or Dynamo Dresden U19

79%

Draw or Dynamo Dresden U19

59%

Winning margin

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 wins by 2+

22%

Dynamo Dresden U19 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 1+ goals

87%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 2+ goals

60%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 3+ goals

33%

Dynamo Dresden U19 1+ goals

86%

Dynamo Dresden U19 2+ goals

58%

Dynamo Dresden U19 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Dynamo Dresden U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 at home — creates 2.27, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

Dynamo Dresden U19 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.76 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 attack 2.27 + Dynamo Dresden U19 defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.02

Dynamo Dresden U19 attack 1.55 + Hertha Zehlendorf U19 defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 scores more

41%

level

21%

Dynamo Dresden U19 scores more

38%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hertha Zehlendorf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Y. Böge← J. Nnaemeka-Chukwurah

51'

L. Ehrlich

63'

A. Soliman← M. Kolenda

63'

W. Noack← T. Fron

63'

S. Akova← P. Behrend

63'

C. Bräunling← T. Menzel

63'

J. Hoffmann← J.Saliger

69'

A. Millgramm

74'

N. Orth← E. Zeil

79'

L. Krause← J. Hasenberg

90+3'

C. Bräunling

Hertha

Dynamo

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: M. Siebert

46'▲Y. Böge←▼J. Nnaemeka-Chukwurah

63'▲A. Soliman←▼M. Kolenda

63'▲W. Noack←▼T. Fron

63'▲S. Akova←▼P. Behrend

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 substitutes

BögeSolimanNoackAkovaErdoganZdepKoczulap

Manager: W. Weisse

63'▲C. Bräunling←▼T. Menzel

63'▲J. Hoffmann←▼J.Saliger

74'▲N. Orth←▼E. Zeil

79'▲L. Krause←▼J. Hasenberg

Dynamo Dresden U19 substitutes

BräunlingHoffmannOrthKrauseVollmerWetschkaWarneck