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Hertha Wiesbach vs TuS Kirchberg — Oberliga - Relegation Round 2022

Hertha Wiesbach
Hertha Wiesbach
FT
2 – 0
TuS Kirchberg
TuS Kirchberg
3/25/2023Oberliga - Relegation RoundOberliga - Relegation Round · Rh/Pf/S - Relegation Round - 3ProWin Stadion am Wallenborn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hertha Wiesbach60%
×Draw18%
TuS Kirchberg21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha Wiesbach
2.58
TuS Kirchberg
1.50

Hertha Wiesbach creates 72% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Hertha Wiesbach
3.17
TuS Kirchberg
1.67

allows per match

Hertha Wiesbach
1.33
TuS Kirchberg
2.00

finishing

Hertha Wiesbach+0.00on par
TuS Kirchberg+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Wiesbach ↓

TuS Kirchberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Hertha Wiesbach or draw
79%
Hertha Wiesbach or TuS Kirchberg
82%
Draw or TuS Kirchberg
40%

Winning margin

Hertha Wiesbach wins by 2+
40%
TuS Kirchberg wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hertha Wiesbach 1+ goals
92%
Hertha Wiesbach 2+ goals
72%
Hertha Wiesbach 3+ goals
47%
TuS Kirchberg 1+ goals
78%
TuS Kirchberg 2+ goals
44%
TuS Kirchberg 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Hertha Wiesbach (draw refunded)
74%
TuS Kirchberg (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Wiesbach at home — creates 3.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

TuS Kirchberg away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Wiesbach attack 3.17 + TuS Kirchberg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.58

TuS Kirchberg attack 1.67 + Hertha Wiesbach defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hertha Wiesbach scores more
60%
level
18%
TuS Kirchberg scores more
21%

Hertha Wiesbach at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Hertha Wiesbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hertha Wiesbach vs TuS Kirchberg

Hertha Wiesbach beat TuS Kirchberg 2-0 in Oberliga - Relegation Round on March 25, 2023.

The match was played at ProWin Stadion am Wallenborn in Eppelborn.