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Hertha Wiesbach vs Sv Morlautern — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Hertha Wiesbach
Hertha Wiesbach
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sv Morlautern
Sv Morlautern
11/25/2022Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 18ProWin Stadion am Wallenborn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Hertha Wiesbach56%
×Draw20%
Sv Morlautern24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha Wiesbach
2.28
Sv Morlautern
1.46

Hertha Wiesbach creates 56% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 46 away

creates per match

Hertha Wiesbach
2.28
Sv Morlautern
1.11

allows per match

Hertha Wiesbach
1.81
Sv Morlautern
2.28

finishing

Hertha Wiesbach+0.00on par
Sv Morlautern+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Wiesbach ↓

Sv Morlautern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Hertha Wiesbach or draw
76%
Hertha Wiesbach or Sv Morlautern
80%
Draw or Sv Morlautern
44%

Winning margin

Hertha Wiesbach wins by 2+
34%
Sv Morlautern wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hertha Wiesbach 1+ goals
90%
Hertha Wiesbach 2+ goals
66%
Hertha Wiesbach 3+ goals
39%
Sv Morlautern 1+ goals
77%
Sv Morlautern 2+ goals
43%
Sv Morlautern 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Hertha Wiesbach (draw refunded)
70%
Sv Morlautern (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Wiesbach at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.81 · 43 matches

Sv Morlautern away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.28 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Wiesbach attack 2.28 + Sv Morlautern defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 2.28

Sv Morlautern attack 1.11 + Hertha Wiesbach defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hertha Wiesbach scores more
56%
level
20%
Sv Morlautern scores more
24%

Hertha Wiesbach at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hertha Wiesbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Hertha Wiesbach 2–2 Sv Morlautern

Hertha Wiesbach and Sv Morlautern drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on November 25, 2022.

The match was played at ProWin Stadion am Wallenborn in Eppelborn.