Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hertha vs Wolfsberg — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Hertha
Hertha
FT
6 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Wolfsberg
Wolfsberg
3/7/2020Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 17Mauth Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Hertha66%
×Draw17%
Wolfsberg17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha
2.74
Wolfsberg
1.37

Hertha creates 100% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 9 away

creates per match

Hertha
2.48
Wolfsberg
1.44

allows per match

Hertha
1.30
Wolfsberg
3.00

finishing

Hertha+0.00on par
Wolfsberg+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha ↓

Wolfsberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Hertha or draw
83%
Hertha or Wolfsberg
83%
Draw or Wolfsberg
34%

Winning margin

Hertha wins by 2+
45%
Wolfsberg wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hertha 1+ goals
93%
Hertha 2+ goals
75%
Hertha 3+ goals
51%
Wolfsberg 1+ goals
75%
Wolfsberg 2+ goals
40%
Wolfsberg 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hertha (draw refunded)
79%
Wolfsberg (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Wolfsberg away — creates 1.44, concedes 3.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha attack 2.48 + Wolfsberg defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.74

Wolfsberg attack 1.44 + Hertha defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Hertha scores more
66%
level
17%
Wolfsberg scores more
17%

Hertha at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Hertha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hertha vs Wolfsberg

Hertha beat Wolfsberg 6-3 in Regionalliga - Mitte on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Mauth Stadion in Wels.