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Hertha vs Sturm Graz II — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Hertha
Hertha
CANC
21:00
Sturm Graz II
Sturm Graz II
5/16/2021Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 27Mauth Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Hertha43%
×Draw22%
Sturm Graz II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha
1.89
Sturm Graz II
1.70

Hertha creates 11% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 48 away

creates per match

Hertha
2.48
Sturm Graz II
2.10

allows per match

Hertha
1.30
Sturm Graz II
1.29

finishing

Hertha+0.00on par
Sturm Graz II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha ↓

Sturm Graz II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Hertha or draw
65%
Hertha or Sturm Graz II
78%
Draw or Sturm Graz II
57%

Winning margin

Hertha wins by 2+
23%
Sturm Graz II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hertha 1+ goals
85%
Hertha 2+ goals
56%
Hertha 3+ goals
29%
Sturm Graz II 1+ goals
82%
Sturm Graz II 2+ goals
51%
Sturm Graz II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Hertha (draw refunded)
55%
Sturm Graz II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Sturm Graz II away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha attack 2.48 + Sturm Graz II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.89

Sturm Graz II attack 2.10 + Hertha defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hertha scores more
43%
level
22%
Sturm Graz II scores more
35%

Hertha at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hertha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Hertha host Sturm Graz II

May 16, 2021: Hertha take on Sturm Graz II in Regionalliga - Mitte. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Hertha host Sturm Graz II at Mauth Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.