Hertha 3–2 SAK Klagenfurt: Result & Stats

Hertha

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

SAK Klagenfurt

9/9/2022

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 8Mauth Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hertha68%

×Draw19%

SAK Klagenfurt14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HerthaExpected goals in this matchSAK Klagenfurt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

0.92

Hertha

2.27

SAK Klagenfurt

0.92

Hertha creates 147% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 15 away

2.48

creates per match

0.53

1.30

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Hertha

2.48

SAK Klagenfurt

0.53

allows per match

Hertha

1.30

SAK Klagenfurt

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha+0.00on par

SAK Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha ↓

SAK Klagenfurt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Hertha or draw

86%

Hertha or SAK Klagenfurt

81%

Draw or SAK Klagenfurt

32%

Winning margin

Hertha wins by 2+

44%

SAK Klagenfurt wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Hertha 1+ goals

90%

Hertha 2+ goals

66%

Hertha 3+ goals

39%

SAK Klagenfurt 1+ goals

60%

SAK Klagenfurt 2+ goals

23%

SAK Klagenfurt 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Hertha (draw refunded)

83%

SAK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

SAK Klagenfurt away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha attack 2.48 + SAK Klagenfurt defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.27

SAK Klagenfurt attack 0.53 + Hertha defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Hertha scores more

68%

level

19%

SAK Klagenfurt scores more

14%

Hertha at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Hertha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff