Hertha 2–1 Grazer AK: Result & Stats

Hertha

FT

2 – 1

Grazer AK

5/31/2019

Regionalliga - Mitte · Round 29Mauth Stadion (Wels)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hertha41%

×Draw23%

Grazer AK36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HerthaExpected goals in this matchGrazer AK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.61

Hertha

1.74

Grazer AK

1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 15 away

2.48

creates per match

1.93

1.30

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Hertha

2.48

Grazer AK

1.93

allows per match

Hertha

1.30

Grazer AK

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha+0.00on par

Grazer AK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha ↓

Grazer AK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Hertha or draw

64%

Hertha or Grazer AK

77%

Draw or Grazer AK

59%

Winning margin

Hertha wins by 2+

21%

Grazer AK wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Hertha 1+ goals

82%

Hertha 2+ goals

52%

Hertha 3+ goals

25%

Grazer AK 1+ goals

80%

Grazer AK 2+ goals

48%

Grazer AK 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Hertha (draw refunded)

53%

Grazer AK (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Grazer AK away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha attack 2.48 + Grazer AK defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.74

Grazer AK attack 1.93 + Hertha defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hertha scores more

41%

level

23%

Grazer AK scores more

36%

Hertha at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hertha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff