Hertha 4–1 Deutschlandsberger SC: Result & Stats

Hertha

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Deutschlandsberger SC

5/6/2022

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 28Mauth Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Hertha52%

×Draw21%

Deutschlandsberger SC27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HerthaExpected goals in this matchDeutschlandsberger SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.45

Hertha

2.10

Deutschlandsberger SC

1.45

Hertha creates 45% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 107 away

2.48

creates per match

1.60

1.30

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Hertha

2.48

Deutschlandsberger SC

1.60

allows per match

Hertha

1.30

Deutschlandsberger SC

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha+0.00on par

Deutschlandsberger SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha ↓

Deutschlandsberger SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Hertha or draw

73%

Hertha or Deutschlandsberger SC

79%

Draw or Deutschlandsberger SC

48%

Winning margin

Hertha wins by 2+

31%

Deutschlandsberger SC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hertha 1+ goals

88%

Hertha 2+ goals

62%

Hertha 3+ goals

35%

Deutschlandsberger SC 1+ goals

77%

Deutschlandsberger SC 2+ goals

42%

Deutschlandsberger SC 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Hertha (draw refunded)

66%

Deutschlandsberger SC (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Deutschlandsberger SC away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.73 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha attack 2.48 + Deutschlandsberger SC defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.10

Deutschlandsberger SC attack 1.60 + Hertha defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hertha scores more

52%

level

21%

Deutschlandsberger SC scores more

27%

Hertha at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hertha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff