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Hertha vs Bad Gleichenberg — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Hertha
Hertha
CANC
13:00
Bad Gleichenberg
Bad Gleichenberg
3/13/2021Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 15Mauth Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Hertha54%
×Draw20%
Bad Gleichenberg26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha
2.26
Bad Gleichenberg
1.52

Hertha creates 49% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 75 away

creates per match

Hertha
2.48
Bad Gleichenberg
1.75

allows per match

Hertha
1.30
Bad Gleichenberg
2.04

finishing

Hertha+0.00on par
Bad Gleichenberg+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha ↓

Bad Gleichenberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Hertha or draw
74%
Hertha or Bad Gleichenberg
80%
Draw or Bad Gleichenberg
46%

Winning margin

Hertha wins by 2+
33%
Bad Gleichenberg wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hertha 1+ goals
89%
Hertha 2+ goals
66%
Hertha 3+ goals
39%
Bad Gleichenberg 1+ goals
78%
Bad Gleichenberg 2+ goals
45%
Bad Gleichenberg 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Hertha (draw refunded)
68%
Bad Gleichenberg (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Bad Gleichenberg away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.04 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha attack 2.48 + Bad Gleichenberg defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.26

Bad Gleichenberg attack 1.75 + Hertha defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Hertha scores more
54%
level
20%
Bad Gleichenberg scores more
26%

Hertha at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Hertha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hertha vs Bad Gleichenberg — Match Preview

Hertha face Bad Gleichenberg on March 13, 2021 in this Regionalliga - Mitte fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Hertha host Bad Gleichenberg at Mauth Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.