Bad Gleichenberg 1–1 Hertha: Result & Stats

Bad Gleichenberg

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hertha

8/10/2021

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 4Bad Gleichenberg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Bad Gleichenberg46%

×Draw21%

Hertha33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bad GleichenbergExpected goals in this matchHertha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.70

Bad Gleichenberg

2.02

Hertha

1.70

Bad Gleichenberg creates 19% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 61 away

2.39

creates per match

1.77

1.62

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Bad Gleichenberg

2.39

Hertha

1.77

allows per match

Bad Gleichenberg

1.62

Hertha

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bad Gleichenberg+0.00on par

Hertha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bad Gleichenberg ↓

Hertha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Bad Gleichenberg or draw

67%

Bad Gleichenberg or Hertha

79%

Draw or Hertha

54%

Winning margin

Bad Gleichenberg wins by 2+

26%

Hertha wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Bad Gleichenberg 1+ goals

87%

Bad Gleichenberg 2+ goals

60%

Bad Gleichenberg 3+ goals

33%

Hertha 1+ goals

82%

Hertha 2+ goals

51%

Hertha 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Bad Gleichenberg (draw refunded)

58%

Hertha (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bad Gleichenberg at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.62 · 76 matches

Hertha away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.64 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bad Gleichenberg attack 2.39 + Hertha defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.02

Hertha attack 1.77 + Bad Gleichenberg defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bad Gleichenberg scores more

46%

level

21%

Hertha scores more

33%

Bad Gleichenberg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bad Gleichenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff