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Hertha BSC vs Erzgebirge Aue — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Hertha BSC
Hertha BSC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Erzgebirge Aue
Erzgebirge Aue
1/6/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Olympiapark Hanns Braun

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hertha BSC43%
×Draw25%
Erzgebirge Aue32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha BSC
1.58
Erzgebirge Aue
1.33

Hertha BSC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Hertha BSC
1.50
Erzgebirge Aue
1.67

allows per match

Hertha BSC
1.00
Erzgebirge Aue
1.67

finishing

Hertha BSC+0.00on par
Erzgebirge Aue+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha BSC ↓

Erzgebirge Aue →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Hertha BSC or draw
68%
Hertha BSC or Erzgebirge Aue
75%
Draw or Erzgebirge Aue
57%

Winning margin

Hertha BSC wins by 2+
22%
Erzgebirge Aue wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hertha BSC 1+ goals
79%
Hertha BSC 2+ goals
47%
Hertha BSC 3+ goals
21%
Erzgebirge Aue 1+ goals
74%
Erzgebirge Aue 2+ goals
38%
Erzgebirge Aue 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hertha BSC (draw refunded)
57%
Erzgebirge Aue (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha BSC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Erzgebirge Aue away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha BSC attack 1.50 + Erzgebirge Aue defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Erzgebirge Aue attack 1.67 + Hertha BSC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hertha BSC scores more
43%
level
25%
Erzgebirge Aue scores more
32%

Hertha BSC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hertha BSC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hertha BSC vs Erzgebirge Aue

Hertha BSC beat Erzgebirge Aue 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 6, 2024.

The match was played at Olympiapark Hanns Braun in Berlin.