Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Hertha BSC
Hertha BSC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1. FC Kaiserslautern
4/11/20262. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 29Olympiastadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hertha BSC46%
×Draw25%
1. FC Kaiserslautern29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha BSC
1.61
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.24

Hertha BSC creates 30% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 69 away

creates per match

Hertha BSC
1.55
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.23

allows per match

Hertha BSC
1.25
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.68

finishing

Hertha BSC+0.00on par
1. FC Kaiserslautern+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha BSC ↓

1. FC Kaiserslautern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hertha BSC or draw
71%
Hertha BSC or 1. FC Kaiserslautern
75%
Draw or 1. FC Kaiserslautern
54%

Winning margin

Hertha BSC wins by 2+
24%
1. FC Kaiserslautern wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hertha BSC 1+ goals
80%
Hertha BSC 2+ goals
48%
Hertha BSC 3+ goals
22%
1. FC Kaiserslautern 1+ goals
71%
1. FC Kaiserslautern 2+ goals
35%
1. FC Kaiserslautern 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hertha BSC (draw refunded)
61%
1. FC Kaiserslautern (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha BSC at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

1. FC Kaiserslautern away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.68 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha BSC attack 1.55 + 1. FC Kaiserslautern defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.61

1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.23 + Hertha BSC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hertha BSC scores more
46%
level
25%
1. FC Kaiserslautern scores more
29%

Hertha BSC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hertha BSC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: Hertha BSC 0–1 1. FC Kaiserslautern

1. FC Kaiserslautern beat Hertha BSC 1-0 in 2. Bundesliga on April 11, 2026.

The match was played at Olympiastadion in Berlin.