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Hertha BSC U19 vs Union Berlin U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Hertha BSC U19
Hertha BSC U19
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Union Berlin U19
Union Berlin U19
9/13/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 6Olympiapark-Amateurstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Hertha BSC U1946%
×Draw20%
Union Berlin U1933%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha BSC U19
2.21
Union Berlin U19
1.85

Hertha BSC U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 70 away

creates per match

Hertha BSC U19
2.74
Union Berlin U19
2.03

allows per match

Hertha BSC U19
1.68
Union Berlin U19
1.69

finishing

Hertha BSC U19+0.00on par
Union Berlin U19+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha BSC U19 ↓

Union Berlin U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Hertha BSC U19 or draw
67%
Hertha BSC U19 or Union Berlin U19
80%
Draw or Union Berlin U19
54%

Winning margin

Hertha BSC U19 wins by 2+
27%
Union Berlin U19 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hertha BSC U19 1+ goals
89%
Hertha BSC U19 2+ goals
65%
Hertha BSC U19 3+ goals
38%
Union Berlin U19 1+ goals
84%
Union Berlin U19 2+ goals
55%
Union Berlin U19 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Hertha BSC U19 (draw refunded)
58%
Union Berlin U19 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha BSC U19 at home — creates 2.74, concedes 1.68 · 74 matches

Union Berlin U19 away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.69 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha BSC U19 attack 2.74 + Union Berlin U19 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.21

Union Berlin U19 attack 2.03 + Hertha BSC U19 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hertha BSC U19 scores more
46%
level
20%
Union Berlin U19 scores more
33%

Hertha BSC U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hertha BSC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hertha BSC U19 1 – 5 Union Berlin U19

Union Berlin U19 beat Hertha BSC U19 5-1 in U19 Bundesliga on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at Olympiapark-Amateurstadion in Berlin.