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Hertha BSC U19 vs St. Pauli U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Hertha BSC U19
Hertha BSC U19
CANC
10:00
St. Pauli U19
St. Pauli U19
1/31/2021U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 10Olympiapark-Amateurstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Hertha BSC U1951%
×Draw20%
St. Pauli U1929%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha BSC U19
2.44
St. Pauli U19
1.84

Hertha BSC U19 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 72 away

creates per match

Hertha BSC U19
2.74
St. Pauli U19
2.01

allows per match

Hertha BSC U19
1.68
St. Pauli U19
2.14

finishing

Hertha BSC U19+0.00on par
St. Pauli U19+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha BSC U19 ↓

St. Pauli U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Hertha BSC U19 or draw
71%
Hertha BSC U19 or St. Pauli U19
80%
Draw or St. Pauli U19
49%

Winning margin

Hertha BSC U19 wins by 2+
31%
St. Pauli U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hertha BSC U19 1+ goals
91%
Hertha BSC U19 2+ goals
70%
Hertha BSC U19 3+ goals
43%
St. Pauli U19 1+ goals
84%
St. Pauli U19 2+ goals
55%
St. Pauli U19 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Hertha BSC U19 (draw refunded)
63%
St. Pauli U19 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha BSC U19 at home — creates 2.74, concedes 1.68 · 74 matches

St. Pauli U19 away — creates 2.01, concedes 2.14 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha BSC U19 attack 2.74 + St. Pauli U19 defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.44

St. Pauli U19 attack 2.01 + Hertha BSC U19 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hertha BSC U19 scores more
51%
level
20%
St. Pauli U19 scores more
29%

Hertha BSC U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hertha BSC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Hertha BSC U19 host St. Pauli U19

January 31, 2021: Hertha BSC U19 take on St. Pauli U19 in U19 Bundesliga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Hertha BSC U19 host St. Pauli U19 at Olympiapark-Amateurstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.