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Hertha BSC U19 vs Osnabrück U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Hertha BSC U19
Hertha BSC U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Osnabrück U19
Osnabrück U19
5/5/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 25Olympiapark-Amateurstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Hertha BSC U1962%
×Draw18%
Osnabrück U1920%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha BSC U19
2.60
Osnabrück U19
1.45

Hertha BSC U19 creates 79% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 50 away

creates per match

Hertha BSC U19
2.74
Osnabrück U19
1.22

allows per match

Hertha BSC U19
1.68
Osnabrück U19
2.46

finishing

Hertha BSC U19+0.00on par
Osnabrück U19+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha BSC U19 ↓

Osnabrück U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Hertha BSC U19 or draw
80%
Hertha BSC U19 or Osnabrück U19
82%
Draw or Osnabrück U19
38%

Winning margin

Hertha BSC U19 wins by 2+
41%
Osnabrück U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hertha BSC U19 1+ goals
92%
Hertha BSC U19 2+ goals
73%
Hertha BSC U19 3+ goals
47%
Osnabrück U19 1+ goals
77%
Osnabrück U19 2+ goals
42%
Osnabrück U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Hertha BSC U19 (draw refunded)
75%
Osnabrück U19 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha BSC U19 at home — creates 2.74, concedes 1.68 · 74 matches

Osnabrück U19 away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.46 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha BSC U19 attack 2.74 + Osnabrück U19 defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.60

Osnabrück U19 attack 1.22 + Hertha BSC U19 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Hertha BSC U19 scores more
62%
level
18%
Osnabrück U19 scores more
20%

Hertha BSC U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Hertha BSC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hertha BSC U19 2 – 1 Osnabrück U19

Hertha BSC U19 beat Osnabrück U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Olympiapark-Amateurstadion in Berlin.