Hertha BSC U19 3–2 Magdeburg U19: Result & Stats

Hertha BSC U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Magdeburg U19

T. Rölke 90+1' (pen), 56'

T. Schliemann 20'

K. Ike 84'

P. Gysbers 82'

12/8/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 4Kunstrasenplatz Olympiapark August-Bier Platz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Hertha BSC U1954%

×Draw19%

Magdeburg U1927%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha BSC U19Expected goals in this matchMagdeburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.57

1.81

Hertha BSC U19

2.57

Magdeburg U19

1.81

Hertha BSC U19 creates 42% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 61 away

2.84

creates per match

2.02

1.59

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Hertha BSC U19

2.84

Magdeburg U19

2.02

allows per match

Hertha BSC U19

1.59

Magdeburg U19

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha BSC U19+0.00on par

Magdeburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha BSC U19 ↓

Magdeburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Hertha BSC U19 or draw

73%

Hertha BSC U19 or Magdeburg U19

81%

Draw or Magdeburg U19

46%

Winning margin

Hertha BSC U19 wins by 2+

34%

Magdeburg U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hertha BSC U19 1+ goals

92%

Hertha BSC U19 2+ goals

72%

Hertha BSC U19 3+ goals

47%

Magdeburg U19 1+ goals

84%

Magdeburg U19 2+ goals

54%

Magdeburg U19 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Hertha BSC U19 (draw refunded)

67%

Magdeburg U19 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha BSC U19 at home — creates 2.84, concedes 1.59 · 81 matches

Magdeburg U19 away — creates 2.02, concedes 2.30 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha BSC U19 attack 2.84 + Magdeburg U19 defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.57

Magdeburg U19 attack 2.02 + Hertha BSC U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Hertha BSC U19 scores more

54%

level

19%

Magdeburg U19 scores more

27%

Hertha BSC U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Hertha BSC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

T. Schliemann

46'

D. Ajvazi← M. Kesik

46'

T. Rölke← Mustafa Abdullatif

56'

T. Rölke

64'

J. Marks← L. Bölke

64'

P. Thon← A. Oikonomidis

72'

K. Hadziavdic← L. Wollschläger

77'

82'

82'

84'

90+1'

T. RölkePenalty

Hertha

Magdeburg

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: M. Hartmann

46'▲D. Ajvazi←▼M. Kesik

46'▲T. Rölke←▼Mustafa Abdullatif

72'▲K. Hadziavdic←▼L. Wollschläger

82'▲D. Häßler←▼L. Popp

Hertha BSC U19 substitutes

AjvaziRölkeHadziavdicHäßlerKühnNajjarGündüz

Manager: P. Sander

64'▲J. Marks←▼L. Bölke

64'▲P. Thon←▼A. Oikonomidis

77'▲C. Krüger←▼R. Meier

Magdeburg U19 substitutes

MarksThonKrügerEngelhardtLeinweberSchadeWien

Match Recap: Hertha BSC U19 vs Magdeburg U19

Hertha BSC U19 beat Magdeburg U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on December 8, 2021.

Goals: T. Schliemann (20'), T. Rölke (56', 90+1' pen), P. Gysbers (82'), K. Ike (84').

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Olympiapark August-Bier Platz 2 in Berlin.

Hertha BSC U19 vs Magdeburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hertha BSC U19 vs Magdeburg U19