Hertha BSC U19 1–0 Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

Hertha BSC U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

N. Hildebrandt 23'

2/9/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 2Olympiapark-Amateurstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Hertha BSC U1949%

×Draw21%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha BSC U19Expected goals in this matchFortuna Düsseldorf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.64

Hertha BSC U19

2.15

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.64

Hertha BSC U19 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 68 away

2.84

creates per match

1.68

1.59

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Hertha BSC U19

2.84

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.68

allows per match

Hertha BSC U19

1.59

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha BSC U19+0.00on par

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha BSC U19 ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Hertha BSC U19 or draw

70%

Hertha BSC U19 or Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

79%

Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

51%

Winning margin

Hertha BSC U19 wins by 2+

29%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hertha BSC U19 1+ goals

88%

Hertha BSC U19 2+ goals

63%

Hertha BSC U19 3+ goals

36%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 1+ goals

81%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 2+ goals

49%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Hertha BSC U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha BSC U19 at home — creates 2.84, concedes 1.59 · 81 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.46 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha BSC U19 attack 2.84 + Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 2.15

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 attack 1.68 + Hertha BSC U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hertha BSC U19 scores more

49%

level

21%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 scores more

30%

Hertha BSC U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hertha BSC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

N. Hildebrandt

65'

S. Gouram← J. Gottschalk

74'

A. Traoré← S. Hagenah

76'

T. Igwesi← A. El-Chaar

86'

O. Capoano← N. Hildebrandt

90'

M. Kurze← K. Affo

90'

T. Malykh← N. Nikolaou

Hertha

Fortuna

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Hildebran

Manager: M. Hartmann

65'▲S. Gouram←▼J. Gottschalk

74'▲A. Traoré←▼S. Hagenah

86'▲O. Capoano←▼N. Hildebrandt

Hertha BSC U19 substitutes

GouramTraoréCapoanoIshionwuSeibertKoldžićGündüz

Manager: E. Vural

76'▲T. Igwesi←▼A. El-Chaar

90'▲M. Kurze←▼K. Affo

90'▲T. Malykh←▼N. Nikolaou

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 substitutes

IgwesiKurzeMalykhGavenkoValeevSevinmezAffo

U19 Bundesliga: Hertha BSC U19 1–0 Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

Hertha BSC U19 beat Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on February 9, 2025.

Goals: N. Hildebrandt (23').

The match was played at Olympiapark-Amateurstadion in Berlin.

Hertha BSC U19 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Hertha BSC U19 1–0 Fortuna Düsseldorf U19