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Hertha BSC U19 vs Eintracht Braunsch U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Hertha BSC U19
Hertha BSC U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Eintracht Braunsch U19
Eintracht Braunsch U19
2/17/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 17Olympiapark-Amateurstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Hertha BSC U1959%
×Draw18%
Eintracht Braunsch U1923%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha BSC U19
2.67
Eintracht Braunsch U19
1.65

Hertha BSC U19 creates 62% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 40 away

creates per match

Hertha BSC U19
2.74
Eintracht Braunsch U19
1.63

allows per match

Hertha BSC U19
1.68
Eintracht Braunsch U19
2.60

finishing

Hertha BSC U19+0.00on par
Eintracht Braunsch U19+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha BSC U19 ↓

Eintracht Braunsch U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Hertha BSC U19 or draw
77%
Hertha BSC U19 or Eintracht Braunsch U19
82%
Draw or Eintracht Braunsch U19
41%

Winning margin

Hertha BSC U19 wins by 2+
39%
Eintracht Braunsch U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hertha BSC U19 1+ goals
93%
Hertha BSC U19 2+ goals
74%
Hertha BSC U19 3+ goals
49%
Eintracht Braunsch U19 1+ goals
81%
Eintracht Braunsch U19 2+ goals
49%
Eintracht Braunsch U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Hertha BSC U19 (draw refunded)
72%
Eintracht Braunsch U19 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha BSC U19 at home — creates 2.74, concedes 1.68 · 74 matches

Eintracht Braunsch U19 away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.60 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha BSC U19 attack 2.74 + Eintracht Braunsch U19 defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.67

Eintracht Braunsch U19 attack 1.63 + Hertha BSC U19 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Hertha BSC U19 scores more
59%
level
18%
Eintracht Braunsch U19 scores more
23%

Hertha BSC U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Hertha BSC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hertha BSC U19 1 – 2 Eintracht Braunsch U19

Eintracht Braunsch U19 beat Hertha BSC U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Olympiapark-Amateurstadion in Berlin.