Hertha BSC U19 5–1 Eimsbütteler TV U19

Hertha BSC U19

FT

5 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

Eimsbütteler TV U19

S. Akan 75'

V. Stange 43'

L. Wollschläger 32', 19'

K. Hadziavdic 22'

T. Duah 14'

4/2/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 16Olympiapark-Amateurstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Hertha BSC U1963%

×Draw18%

Eimsbütteler TV U1918%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha BSC U19Expected goals in this matchEimsbütteler TV U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.51

1.29

Hertha BSC U19

2.51

Eimsbütteler TV U19

1.29

Hertha BSC U19 creates 95% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 11 away

2.84

creates per match

1.00

1.59

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Hertha BSC U19

2.84

Eimsbütteler TV U19

1.00

allows per match

Hertha BSC U19

1.59

Eimsbütteler TV U19

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha BSC U19+0.00on par

Eimsbütteler TV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha BSC U19 ↓

Eimsbütteler TV U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Hertha BSC U19 or draw

82%

Hertha BSC U19 or Eimsbütteler TV U19

82%

Draw or Eimsbütteler TV U19

37%

Winning margin

Hertha BSC U19 wins by 2+

42%

Eimsbütteler TV U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Hertha BSC U19 1+ goals

92%

Hertha BSC U19 2+ goals

71%

Hertha BSC U19 3+ goals

45%

Eimsbütteler TV U19 1+ goals

72%

Eimsbütteler TV U19 2+ goals

37%

Eimsbütteler TV U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hertha BSC U19 (draw refunded)

78%

Eimsbütteler TV U19 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha BSC U19 at home — creates 2.84, concedes 1.59 · 81 matches

Eimsbütteler TV U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha BSC U19 attack 2.84 + Eimsbütteler TV U19 defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.51

Eimsbütteler TV U19 attack 1.00 + Hertha BSC U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Hertha BSC U19 scores more

63%

level

18%

Eimsbütteler TV U19 scores more

18%

Hertha BSC U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Hertha BSC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

19'

22'

32'

43'

46'

57'

L. Schumacher← S. Siegfried

68'

M. Kesik← T. Gündüz

68'

S. Akan← K. Hadziavdic

68'

M. Ajruli← A. Tahirsylaj

72'

S. Özenc← I. Mansaray

75'

S. Akan

81'

D. Ajvazi← L. Ullrich

81'

D. Häßler← Mustafa Abdullatif

Hertha

Eimsbütteler

Özmen

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

Hadziavdi

Popp

Manager: M. Hartmann

68'▲M. Kesik←▼T. Gündüz

68'▲S. Akan←▼K. Hadziavdic

81'▲D. Ajvazi←▼L. Ullrich

81'▲D. Häßler←▼Mustafa Abdullatif

Hertha BSC U19 substitutes

KesikAkanAjvaziHäßlerPreljevićKühnSeidel

Manager: P. Nabaoui

46'▲Z. Dimakis←▼T. Duah

57'▲L. Schumacher←▼S. Siegfried

68'▲M. Ajruli←▼A. Tahirsylaj

72'▲S. Özenc←▼I. Mansaray

Eimsbütteler TV U19 substitutes

DimakisSchumacherAjruliÖzencSulejmaniAgyemangKolvenbach