Hertha BSC U19 2–1 Darmstadt 98 U19: Result & Stats

Hertha BSC U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Darmstadt 98 U19

O. Rölke 67'

L. Michelbrink 38'

V. Turudija 84' (pen)

5/6/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - League A - 1Olympiapark Hanns Braun

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Hertha BSC U1958%

×Draw19%

Darmstadt 98 U1923%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha BSC U19Expected goals in this matchDarmstadt 98 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

1.58

Hertha BSC U19

2.54

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.58

Hertha BSC U19 creates 61% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 48 away

2.84

creates per match

1.56

1.59

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Hertha BSC U19

2.84

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.56

allows per match

Hertha BSC U19

1.59

Darmstadt 98 U19

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha BSC U19+0.00on par

Darmstadt 98 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha BSC U19 ↓

Darmstadt 98 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Hertha BSC U19 or draw

77%

Hertha BSC U19 or Darmstadt 98 U19

81%

Draw or Darmstadt 98 U19

42%

Winning margin

Hertha BSC U19 wins by 2+

37%

Darmstadt 98 U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Hertha BSC U19 1+ goals

92%

Hertha BSC U19 2+ goals

72%

Hertha BSC U19 3+ goals

46%

Darmstadt 98 U19 1+ goals

79%

Darmstadt 98 U19 2+ goals

47%

Darmstadt 98 U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Hertha BSC U19 (draw refunded)

71%

Darmstadt 98 U19 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha BSC U19 at home — creates 2.84, concedes 1.59 · 81 matches

Darmstadt 98 U19 away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.25 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha BSC U19 attack 2.84 + Darmstadt 98 U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.54

Darmstadt 98 U19 attack 1.56 + Hertha BSC U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Hertha BSC U19 scores more

58%

level

19%

Darmstadt 98 U19 scores more

23%

Hertha BSC U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Hertha BSC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

L. Michelbrink

46'

J. Gottschalk← P. Matiebel

46'

S. Telib← B. Dárdai

46'

T. Hoffmann← D. Karsten

61'

L. Kaiser← A. Toch

61'

P. Hamm← A. Schreck

66'

K. Bellomo← S. Gouram

67'

O. Rölke

76'

J. Fazal← T. Arnold

84'

V. TurudijaPenalty

Hertha

Darmstadt

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: O. Reiß

46'▲J. Gottschalk←▼P. Matiebel

46'▲S. Telib←▼B. Dárdai

46'▲T. Hoffmann←▼D. Karsten

66'▲K. Bellomo←▼S. Gouram

Hertha BSC U19 substitutes

GottschalkTelibHoffmannBellomoKrause

Manager: D. Petrowsky

61'▲L. Kaiser←▼A. Toch

61'▲P. Hamm←▼A. Schreck

76'▲J. Fazal←▼T. Arnold

Darmstadt 98 U19 substitutes

KaiserHammFazalZimmer

Match Recap: Hertha BSC U19 vs Darmstadt 98 U19

Hertha BSC U19 beat Darmstadt 98 U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on May 6, 2023.

Goals: L. Michelbrink (38'), O. Rölke (67'), V. Turudija (84' pen).

The match was played at Olympiapark Hanns Braun in Berlin.

Hertha BSC U19 vs Darmstadt 98 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hertha BSC U19 vs Darmstadt 98 U19