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Hertha BSC II vs SV Babelsberg 03 — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Hertha BSC II
Hertha BSC II
FT
1 – 7
HT: 0 – 3
SV Babelsberg 03
SV Babelsberg 03
1/10/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Kunstrasenplatz Olympiapark August-Bier Platz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Hertha BSC II32%
×Draw21%
SV Babelsberg 0347%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha BSC II
1.81
SV Babelsberg 03
2.21

SV Babelsberg 03 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Hertha BSC II
2.29
SV Babelsberg 03
2.56

allows per match

Hertha BSC II
1.86
SV Babelsberg 03
1.33

finishing

Hertha BSC II+0.00on par
SV Babelsberg 03+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha BSC II ↓

SV Babelsberg 03 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Hertha BSC II or draw
53%
Hertha BSC II or SV Babelsberg 03
79%
Draw or SV Babelsberg 03
68%

Winning margin

Hertha BSC II wins by 2+
16%
SV Babelsberg 03 wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Hertha BSC II 1+ goals
84%
Hertha BSC II 2+ goals
54%
Hertha BSC II 3+ goals
27%
SV Babelsberg 03 1+ goals
89%
SV Babelsberg 03 2+ goals
65%
SV Babelsberg 03 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Hertha BSC II (draw refunded)
41%
SV Babelsberg 03 (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha BSC II at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

SV Babelsberg 03 away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha BSC II attack 2.29 + SV Babelsberg 03 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.81

SV Babelsberg 03 attack 2.56 + Hertha BSC II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hertha BSC II scores more
32%
level
21%
SV Babelsberg 03 scores more
47%

SV Babelsberg 03 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SV Babelsberg 03 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Hertha BSC II 1–7 SV Babelsberg 03

SV Babelsberg 03 beat Hertha BSC II 7-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 10, 2024.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Olympiapark August-Bier Platz 2 in Berlin.