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Hertha Berlin vs VfL Osnabruck — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Hertha Berlin
Hertha Berlin
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
VfL Osnabruck
VfL Osnabruck
12/16/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 17Olympiastadion Berlin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hertha Berlin49%
×Draw24%
VfL Osnabruck27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha Berlin
1.65
VfL Osnabruck
1.16

Hertha Berlin creates 42% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 52 away

creates per match

Hertha Berlin
1.55
VfL Osnabruck
1.06

allows per match

Hertha Berlin
1.25
VfL Osnabruck
1.75

finishing

Hertha Berlin+0.00on par
VfL Osnabruck+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Berlin ↓

VfL Osnabruck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hertha Berlin or draw
73%
Hertha Berlin or VfL Osnabruck
76%
Draw or VfL Osnabruck
51%

Winning margin

Hertha Berlin wins by 2+
26%
VfL Osnabruck wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hertha Berlin 1+ goals
81%
Hertha Berlin 2+ goals
49%
Hertha Berlin 3+ goals
23%
VfL Osnabruck 1+ goals
69%
VfL Osnabruck 2+ goals
32%
VfL Osnabruck 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hertha Berlin (draw refunded)
64%
VfL Osnabruck (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Berlin at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

VfL Osnabruck away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.75 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Berlin attack 1.55 + VfL Osnabruck defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.65

VfL Osnabruck attack 1.06 + Hertha Berlin defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hertha Berlin scores more
49%
level
24%
VfL Osnabruck scores more
27%

Hertha Berlin at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hertha Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hertha Berlin vs VfL Osnabruck

Hertha Berlin and VfL Osnabruck drew 0-0 in 2. Bundesliga on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Olympiastadion Berlin in Berlin.