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Hertha Berlin vs FC Magdeburg — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Hertha Berlin
Hertha Berlin
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
FC Magdeburg
FC Magdeburg
2/16/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 22Olympiastadion Berlin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hertha Berlin44%
×Draw24%
FC Magdeburg32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha Berlin
1.67
FC Magdeburg
1.38

Hertha Berlin creates 21% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 85 away

creates per match

Hertha Berlin
1.55
FC Magdeburg
1.51

allows per match

Hertha Berlin
1.25
FC Magdeburg
1.78

finishing

Hertha Berlin+0.00on par
FC Magdeburg+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Berlin ↓

FC Magdeburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Hertha Berlin or draw
68%
Hertha Berlin or FC Magdeburg
76%
Draw or FC Magdeburg
56%

Winning margin

Hertha Berlin wins by 2+
23%
FC Magdeburg wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hertha Berlin 1+ goals
81%
Hertha Berlin 2+ goals
50%
Hertha Berlin 3+ goals
23%
FC Magdeburg 1+ goals
75%
FC Magdeburg 2+ goals
40%
FC Magdeburg 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hertha Berlin (draw refunded)
58%
FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Berlin at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.25 · 51 matches

FC Magdeburg away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.78 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Berlin attack 1.55 + FC Magdeburg defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.67

FC Magdeburg attack 1.51 + Hertha Berlin defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hertha Berlin scores more
44%
level
24%
FC Magdeburg scores more
32%

Hertha Berlin at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hertha Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hertha Berlin vs FC Magdeburg

Hertha Berlin beat FC Magdeburg 3-2 in 2. Bundesliga on February 16, 2024.

The match was played at Olympiastadion Berlin in Berlin.