Hertha Berlin 3–1 FC Kaiserslautern: Result & Stats

Hertha Berlin

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

FC Kaiserslautern

F. Reese 67'

J. Dudziak 45+3'

H. Tabaković 19' (pen)

M. Ritter 39'

5/11/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 33Olympiastadion Berlin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Hertha Berlin37%

×Draw25%

FC Kaiserslautern38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha BerlinExpected goals in this matchFC Kaiserslautern

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.42

Hertha Berlin

1.40

FC Kaiserslautern

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

1.42

creates per match

1.36

1.47

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Hertha Berlin

1.42

FC Kaiserslautern

1.36

allows per match

Hertha Berlin

1.47

FC Kaiserslautern

1.39

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

Hertha Berlin-0.34scores less

FC Kaiserslautern-0.22scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Berlin ↓

FC Kaiserslautern →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Hertha Berlin or draw

62%

Hertha Berlin or FC Kaiserslautern

75%

Draw or FC Kaiserslautern

63%

Winning margin

Hertha Berlin wins by 2+

17%

FC Kaiserslautern wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Hertha Berlin 1+ goals

75%

Hertha Berlin 2+ goals

41%

Hertha Berlin 3+ goals

17%

FC Kaiserslautern 1+ goals

76%

FC Kaiserslautern 2+ goals

41%

FC Kaiserslautern 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Hertha Berlin (draw refunded)

49%

FC Kaiserslautern (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Berlin at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.47 · 12 matches

FC Kaiserslautern away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.39 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Berlin attack 1.42 + FC Kaiserslautern defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.40

FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.36 + Hertha Berlin defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hertha Berlin scores more

37%

level

25%

FC Kaiserslautern scores more

38%

FC Kaiserslautern at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Kaiserslautern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

F. Reese

Hertha Berlin · M

9.5

Match Events

17'

Jan Elvedi

19'

H. TabakovićPenalty

25'

Ben Zolinski

29'

Deyovaisio Zeefuik

30'

Jean Zimmer

32'

A. Opoku← B. Zolinski

39'

45+3'

62'

64'

67'

79'

79'

D. Scherhant← I. Maza

79'

M. Winkler← P. Dárdai

84'

F. Niederlechner← H. Tabaković

84'

P. Pekarík← J. Dudziak

85'

A. Aremu← K. Redondo

85'

D. Abiama← T. Raschl

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HerthaFC

Overview

44%Possession56%

17Total Shots12

2Corners6

9Fouls9

Shots

17Total Shots12

4On Target2

9Off Target6

4Blocked4

13Inside Box5

4Outside Box7

Passing

44%Possession56%

393Total Passes502

332Accurate Passes421

84%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls9

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Hertha Berlin vs FC Kaiserslautern

Hertha Berlin beat FC Kaiserslautern 3-1 in 2. Bundesliga on May 11, 2024.

Goals: H. Tabaković (19' pen), M. Ritter (39'), J. Dudziak (45+3'), F. Reese (67').

FC Kaiserslautern controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 17.

The match was played at Olympiastadion Berlin in Berlin.

Hertha Berlin vs FC Kaiserslautern — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Hertha Berlin vs FC Kaiserslautern