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Hertha Berlin vs FC Kaiserslautern — DFB Pokal 2018

Hertha Berlin
Hertha Berlin
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
FC Kaiserslautern
FC Kaiserslauternadvanced
1/31/2024DFB PokalDFB Pokal · Quarter-finalsOlympiastadion Berlin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hertha Berlin40%
×Draw21%
FC Kaiserslautern40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha Berlin
2.04
FC Kaiserslautern
2.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Hertha Berlin
2.83
FC Kaiserslautern
2.75

allows per match

Hertha Berlin
1.33
FC Kaiserslautern
1.25

finishing

Hertha Berlin+0.00on par
FC Kaiserslautern+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Berlin ↓

FC Kaiserslautern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Hertha Berlin or draw
60%
Hertha Berlin or FC Kaiserslautern
79%
Draw or FC Kaiserslautern
60%

Winning margin

Hertha Berlin wins by 2+
22%
FC Kaiserslautern wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Hertha Berlin 1+ goals
87%
Hertha Berlin 2+ goals
60%
Hertha Berlin 3+ goals
33%
FC Kaiserslautern 1+ goals
87%
FC Kaiserslautern 2+ goals
60%
FC Kaiserslautern 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Hertha Berlin (draw refunded)
50%
FC Kaiserslautern (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Berlin at home — creates 2.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

FC Kaiserslautern away — creates 2.75, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Berlin attack 2.83 + FC Kaiserslautern defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.04

FC Kaiserslautern attack 2.75 + Hertha Berlin defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hertha Berlin scores more
40%
level
21%
FC Kaiserslautern scores more
40%

Hertha Berlin at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hertha Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

DFB Pokal: Hertha Berlin 1–3 FC Kaiserslautern

FC Kaiserslautern beat Hertha Berlin 3-1 in DFB Pokal on January 31, 2024.

The match was played at Olympiastadion Berlin in Berlin.