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Herrestads vs Säffle SK — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Herrestads
Herrestads
FT
1 – 1
Säffle SK
Säffle SK
9/1/2023Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 19Undavallen Konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Herrestads65%
×Draw20%
Säffle SK15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Herrestads
2.08
Säffle SK
0.89

Herrestads creates 134% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 26 away

creates per match

Herrestads
1.92
Säffle SK
0.81

allows per match

Herrestads
0.97
Säffle SK
2.23

finishing

Herrestads+0.00on par
Säffle SK+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Herrestads ↓

Säffle SK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Herrestads or draw
85%
Herrestads or Säffle SK
80%
Draw or Säffle SK
35%

Winning margin

Herrestads wins by 2+
40%
Säffle SK wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Herrestads 1+ goals
87%
Herrestads 2+ goals
61%
Herrestads 3+ goals
34%
Säffle SK 1+ goals
59%
Säffle SK 2+ goals
22%
Säffle SK 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Herrestads (draw refunded)
81%
Säffle SK (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Herrestads at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.97 · 59 matches

Säffle SK away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.23 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Herrestads attack 1.92 + Säffle SK defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.08

Säffle SK attack 0.81 + Herrestads defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Herrestads scores more
65%
level
20%
Säffle SK scores more
15%

Herrestads at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Herrestads will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Herrestads vs Säffle SK

Herrestads and Säffle SK drew 1-1 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on September 1, 2023.

The match was played at Undavallen Konstgräs in Uddevalla.