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Herrestads vs Mjölby — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Herrestads
Herrestads
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mjölby
Mjölby
6/11/2022Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 12Undavallen Konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Herrestads56%
×Draw23%
Mjölby21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Herrestads
1.80
Mjölby
1.02

Herrestads creates 76% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 13 away

creates per match

Herrestads
1.92
Mjölby
1.08

allows per match

Herrestads
0.97
Mjölby
1.69

finishing

Herrestads+0.00on par
Mjölby+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Herrestads ↓

Mjölby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Herrestads or draw
79%
Herrestads or Mjölby
77%
Draw or Mjölby
44%

Winning margin

Herrestads wins by 2+
31%
Mjölby wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Herrestads 1+ goals
83%
Herrestads 2+ goals
54%
Herrestads 3+ goals
27%
Mjölby 1+ goals
64%
Mjölby 2+ goals
27%
Mjölby 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Herrestads (draw refunded)
72%
Mjölby (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Herrestads at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.97 · 59 matches

Mjölby away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Herrestads attack 1.92 + Mjölby defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.80

Mjölby attack 1.08 + Herrestads defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Herrestads scores more
56%
level
23%
Mjölby scores more
21%

Herrestads at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Herrestads will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norra Götaland: Herrestads 3–1 Mjölby

Herrestads beat Mjölby 3-1 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on June 11, 2022.

The match was played at Undavallen Konstgräs in Uddevalla.