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Heroes vs Musanze — National Soccer League 2019

Heroes
Heroes
FT
3 – 2
Musanze
Musanze
11/26/2019National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 10Bugesera Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Heroes28%
×Draw25%
Musanze47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heroes
1.16
Musanze
1.56

Musanze creates 34% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 98 away

creates per match

Heroes
0.85
Musanze
1.04

allows per match

Heroes
2.08
Musanze
1.47

finishing

Heroes+0.00on par
Musanze+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heroes ↓

Musanze →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Heroes or draw
53%
Heroes or Musanze
75%
Draw or Musanze
72%

Winning margin

Heroes wins by 2+
11%
Musanze wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Heroes 1+ goals
69%
Heroes 2+ goals
32%
Heroes 3+ goals
11%
Musanze 1+ goals
79%
Musanze 2+ goals
46%
Musanze 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Heroes (draw refunded)
38%
Musanze (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heroes at home — creates 0.85, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Musanze away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.47 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heroes attack 0.85 + Musanze defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.16

Musanze attack 1.04 + Heroes defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Heroes scores more
28%
level
25%
Musanze scores more
47%

Musanze at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Musanze will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Soccer League: Heroes 3–2 Musanze

Heroes beat Musanze 3-2 in National Soccer League on November 26, 2019.

The match was played at Bugesera Stadium in Nyamata.