Heroes 0–5 Kiyovu Sports: Result & Stats

Heroes

FT

0 – 5

Kiyovu Sports

3/7/2020

National Soccer League · Round 22Bugesera Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Heroes23%

×Draw25%

Kiyovu Sports51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HeroesExpected goals in this matchKiyovu Sports

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.58

Heroes

0.98

Kiyovu Sports

1.58

Kiyovu Sports creates 61% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 96 away

0.85

creates per match

1.07

2.08

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Heroes

0.85

Kiyovu Sports

1.07

allows per match

Heroes

2.08

Kiyovu Sports

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heroes+0.00on par

Kiyovu Sports+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heroes ↓

Kiyovu Sports →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Heroes or draw

49%

Heroes or Kiyovu Sports

75%

Draw or Kiyovu Sports

77%

Winning margin

Heroes wins by 2+

8%

Kiyovu Sports wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Heroes 1+ goals

62%

Heroes 2+ goals

26%

Heroes 3+ goals

8%

Kiyovu Sports 1+ goals

79%

Kiyovu Sports 2+ goals

47%

Kiyovu Sports 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Heroes (draw refunded)

31%

Kiyovu Sports (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heroes at home — creates 0.85, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Kiyovu Sports away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.10 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heroes attack 0.85 + Kiyovu Sports defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.98

Kiyovu Sports attack 1.07 + Heroes defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Heroes scores more

23%

level

25%

Kiyovu Sports scores more

51%

Kiyovu Sports at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kiyovu Sports will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff