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Heroes vs Gasogi United — National Soccer League 2019

Heroes
Heroes
FT
0 – 1
Gasogi United
Gasogi United
12/4/2019National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 12Bugesera Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Heroes26%
×Draw26%
Gasogi United48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heroes
1.03
Gasogi United
1.51

Gasogi United creates 47% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 97 away

creates per match

Heroes
0.85
Gasogi United
0.93

allows per match

Heroes
2.08
Gasogi United
1.21

finishing

Heroes+0.00on par
Gasogi United+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heroes ↓

Gasogi United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Heroes or draw
52%
Heroes or Gasogi United
74%
Draw or Gasogi United
74%

Winning margin

Heroes wins by 2+
10%
Gasogi United wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Heroes 1+ goals
64%
Heroes 2+ goals
28%
Heroes 3+ goals
9%
Gasogi United 1+ goals
78%
Gasogi United 2+ goals
44%
Gasogi United 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Heroes (draw refunded)
35%
Gasogi United (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heroes at home — creates 0.85, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Gasogi United away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.21 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heroes attack 0.85 + Gasogi United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.03

Gasogi United attack 0.93 + Heroes defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Heroes scores more
26%
level
26%
Gasogi United scores more
48%

Gasogi United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gasogi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Heroes vs Gasogi United

Gasogi United beat Heroes 1-0 in National Soccer League on December 4, 2019.

The match was played at Bugesera Stadium in Nyamata.