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Heroes vs APR — National Soccer League 2019

Heroes
Heroes
FT
0 – 1
APR
APR
12/14/2019National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 14Bugesera Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Heroes15%
×Draw23%
APR62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heroes
0.76
APR
1.79

APR creates 136% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 94 away

creates per match

Heroes
0.85
APR
1.49

allows per match

Heroes
2.08
APR
0.66

finishing

Heroes+0.00on par
APR+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heroes ↓

APR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–114%
0–213%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Heroes or draw
38%
Heroes or APR
77%
Draw or APR
85%

Winning margin

Heroes wins by 2+
4%
APR wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Heroes 1+ goals
53%
Heroes 2+ goals
18%
Heroes 3+ goals
4%
APR 1+ goals
83%
APR 2+ goals
53%
APR 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Heroes (draw refunded)
20%
APR (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heroes at home — creates 0.85, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

APR away — creates 1.49, concedes 0.66 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heroes attack 0.85 + APR defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.76

APR attack 1.49 + Heroes defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Heroes scores more
15%
level
23%
APR scores more
62%

APR at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "APR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Soccer League: Heroes 0–1 APR

APR beat Heroes 1-0 in National Soccer League on December 14, 2019.

The match was played at Bugesera Stadium in Nyamata.