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Héroes de Falcón vs Llaneros de Guanare — Segunda División 2018

Héroes de Falcón
Héroes de Falcón
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
6/19/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 1st Phase - 11Estadio de Fútbol Ludgero Correia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Héroes de Falcón54%
×Draw25%
Llaneros de Guanare21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Héroes de Falcón
1.64
Llaneros de Guanare
0.93

Héroes de Falcón creates 76% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 43 away

creates per match

Héroes de Falcón
1.74
Llaneros de Guanare
0.93

allows per match

Héroes de Falcón
0.93
Llaneros de Guanare
1.53

finishing

Héroes de Falcón+0.00on par
Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Héroes de Falcón ↓

Llaneros de Guanare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Héroes de Falcón or draw
79%
Héroes de Falcón or Llaneros de Guanare
75%
Draw or Llaneros de Guanare
46%

Winning margin

Héroes de Falcón wins by 2+
29%
Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Héroes de Falcón 1+ goals
81%
Héroes de Falcón 2+ goals
49%
Héroes de Falcón 3+ goals
23%
Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
61%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
24%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Héroes de Falcón (draw refunded)
72%
Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Héroes de Falcón at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.93 · 57 matches

Llaneros de Guanare away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.53 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Héroes de Falcón attack 1.74 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.64

Llaneros de Guanare attack 0.93 + Héroes de Falcón defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Héroes de Falcón scores more
54%
level
25%
Llaneros de Guanare scores more
21%

Héroes de Falcón at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Héroes de Falcón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Héroes de Falcón vs Llaneros de Guanare

Héroes de Falcón beat Llaneros de Guanare 6-0 in Segunda División on June 19, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio de Fútbol Ludgero Correia in Falcón.