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MC Oran vs RC Arba — Ligue 1 2018

MC Oran
MC Oran
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
RC Arba
RC Arba
5/20/2016Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 29Stade Ahmed Zabana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

MC Oran54%
×Draw26%
RC Arba20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MC Oran
1.49
RC Arba
0.78

MC Oran creates 91% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 33 away

creates per match

MC Oran
1.40
RC Arba
0.82

allows per match

MC Oran
0.75
RC Arba
1.58

finishing

MC Oran+0.00on par
RC Arba+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MC Oran ↓

RC Arba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

MC Oran or draw
80%
MC Oran or RC Arba
74%
Draw or RC Arba
46%

Winning margin

MC Oran wins by 2+
28%
RC Arba wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

MC Oran 1+ goals
77%
MC Oran 2+ goals
44%
MC Oran 3+ goals
19%
RC Arba 1+ goals
54%
RC Arba 2+ goals
18%
RC Arba 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

MC Oran (draw refunded)
73%
RC Arba (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MC Oran at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.75 · 123 matches

RC Arba away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MC Oran attack 1.40 + RC Arba defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.49

RC Arba attack 0.82 + MC Oran defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

MC Oran scores more
54%
level
26%
RC Arba scores more
20%

MC Oran at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "MC Oran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MC Oran 2 – 1 RC Arba

MC Oran beat RC Arba 2-1 in Ligue 1 on May 20, 2016.

The match was played at Stade Ahmed Zabana in Oran.