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Hermannstadt W vs Vasas Femina W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Hermannstadt W
Hermannstadt W
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Vasas Femina W
Vasas Femina W
5/25/2025Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Relegation Round - 12Stadionul Măgura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hermannstadt W33%
×Draw19%
Vasas Femina W48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hermannstadt W
2.12
Vasas Femina W
2.56

Vasas Femina W creates 21% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 58 away

creates per match

Hermannstadt W
1.00
Vasas Femina W
1.34

allows per match

Hermannstadt W
3.77
Vasas Femina W
3.24

finishing

Hermannstadt W+0.00on par
Vasas Femina W+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hermannstadt W ↓

Vasas Femina W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Hermannstadt W or draw
52%
Hermannstadt W or Vasas Femina W
81%
Draw or Vasas Femina W
67%

Winning margin

Hermannstadt W wins by 2+
18%
Vasas Femina W wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Hermannstadt W 1+ goals
88%
Hermannstadt W 2+ goals
62%
Hermannstadt W 3+ goals
35%
Vasas Femina W 1+ goals
92%
Vasas Femina W 2+ goals
72%
Vasas Femina W 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Hermannstadt W (draw refunded)
41%
Vasas Femina W (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hermannstadt W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.77 · 13 matches

Vasas Femina W away — creates 1.34, concedes 3.24 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hermannstadt W attack 1.00 + Vasas Femina W defence 3.24 → ÷2 → 2.12

Vasas Femina W attack 1.34 + Hermannstadt W defence 3.77 → ÷2 → 2.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hermannstadt W scores more
33%
level
19%
Vasas Femina W scores more
48%

Vasas Femina W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Vasas Femina W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 1 Feminin: Hermannstadt W 1–4 Vasas Femina W

Vasas Femina W beat Hermannstadt W 4-1 in Liga 1 Feminin on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Măgura in Cisnădie.