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Hermannstadt W vs Unirea Alba Iulia W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Hermannstadt W
Hermannstadt W
FT
1 – 1
Unirea Alba Iulia W
Unirea Alba Iulia W
9/15/2024Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 4Stadionul Măgura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hermannstadt W28%
×Draw19%
Unirea Alba Iulia W52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hermannstadt W
1.86
Unirea Alba Iulia W
2.54

Unirea Alba Iulia W creates 37% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Hermannstadt W
1.00
Unirea Alba Iulia W
1.31

allows per match

Hermannstadt W
3.77
Unirea Alba Iulia W
2.73

finishing

Hermannstadt W+0.00on par
Unirea Alba Iulia W+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hermannstadt W ↓

Unirea Alba Iulia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Hermannstadt W or draw
48%
Hermannstadt W or Unirea Alba Iulia W
81%
Draw or Unirea Alba Iulia W
72%

Winning margin

Hermannstadt W wins by 2+
14%
Unirea Alba Iulia W wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Hermannstadt W 1+ goals
84%
Hermannstadt W 2+ goals
55%
Hermannstadt W 3+ goals
28%
Unirea Alba Iulia W 1+ goals
92%
Unirea Alba Iulia W 2+ goals
72%
Unirea Alba Iulia W 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Hermannstadt W (draw refunded)
35%
Unirea Alba Iulia W (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hermannstadt W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.77 · 13 matches

Unirea Alba Iulia W away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hermannstadt W attack 1.00 + Unirea Alba Iulia W defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 1.86

Unirea Alba Iulia W attack 1.31 + Hermannstadt W defence 3.77 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hermannstadt W scores more
28%
level
19%
Unirea Alba Iulia W scores more
52%

Unirea Alba Iulia W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Unirea Alba Iulia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 1 Feminin: Hermannstadt W 1–1 Unirea Alba Iulia W

Hermannstadt W and Unirea Alba Iulia W drew 1-1 in Liga 1 Feminin on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Măgura in Cisnădie.