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Hermannstadt W vs Atletic Olimpia Gherla W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Hermannstadt W
Hermannstadt W
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Atletic Olimpia Gherla W
Atletic Olimpia Gherla W
3/23/2025Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Relegation Round - 4Stadionul Măgura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hermannstadt W33%
×Draw19%
Atletic Olimpia Gherla W48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hermannstadt W
2.23
Atletic Olimpia Gherla W
2.70

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W creates 21% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Hermannstadt W
1.00
Atletic Olimpia Gherla W
1.62

allows per match

Hermannstadt W
3.77
Atletic Olimpia Gherla W
3.46

finishing

Hermannstadt W+0.00on par
Atletic Olimpia Gherla W+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hermannstadt W ↓

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–26%
1–35%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Hermannstadt W or draw
52%
Hermannstadt W or Atletic Olimpia Gherla W
81%
Draw or Atletic Olimpia Gherla W
67%

Winning margin

Hermannstadt W wins by 2+
18%
Atletic Olimpia Gherla W wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Hermannstadt W 1+ goals
89%
Hermannstadt W 2+ goals
65%
Hermannstadt W 3+ goals
38%
Atletic Olimpia Gherla W 1+ goals
93%
Atletic Olimpia Gherla W 2+ goals
75%
Atletic Olimpia Gherla W 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Hermannstadt W (draw refunded)
40%
Atletic Olimpia Gherla W (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hermannstadt W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.77 · 13 matches

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W away — creates 1.62, concedes 3.46 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hermannstadt W attack 1.00 + Atletic Olimpia Gherla W defence 3.46 → ÷2 → 2.23

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W attack 1.62 + Hermannstadt W defence 3.77 → ÷2 → 2.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hermannstadt W scores more
33%
level
19%
Atletic Olimpia Gherla W scores more
48%

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atletic Olimpia Gherla W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hermannstadt W vs Atletic Olimpia Gherla W

Atletic Olimpia Gherla W beat Hermannstadt W 4-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on March 23, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Măgura in Cisnădie.