Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Heřmanice Slezská vs Vítkovice — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Heřmanice Slezská
Heřmanice Slezská
FT
1 – 3
Vítkovice
Vítkovice
10/2/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 10Stadion Heřmanice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Heřmanice Slezská15%
×Draw15%
Vítkovice70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heřmanice Slezská
1.34
Vítkovice
2.98

Vítkovice creates 122% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 49 away

creates per match

Heřmanice Slezská
1.00
Vítkovice
2.55

allows per match

Heřmanice Slezská
3.42
Vítkovice
1.69

finishing

Heřmanice Slezská+0.00on par
Vítkovice+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heřmanice Slezská ↓

Vítkovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Heřmanice Slezská or draw
30%
Heřmanice Slezská or Vítkovice
85%
Draw or Vítkovice
85%

Winning margin

Heřmanice Slezská wins by 2+
6%
Vítkovice wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Heřmanice Slezská 1+ goals
74%
Heřmanice Slezská 2+ goals
39%
Heřmanice Slezská 3+ goals
15%
Vítkovice 1+ goals
95%
Vítkovice 2+ goals
79%
Vítkovice 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

Heřmanice Slezská (draw refunded)
17%
Vítkovice (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heřmanice Slezská at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.42 · 19 matches

Vítkovice away — creates 2.55, concedes 1.69 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heřmanice Slezská attack 1.00 + Vítkovice defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.34

Vítkovice attack 2.55 + Heřmanice Slezská defence 3.42 → ÷2 → 2.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Heřmanice Slezská scores more
15%
level
15%
Vítkovice scores more
70%

Vítkovice at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Vítkovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Heřmanice Slezská 1–3 Vítkovice

Vítkovice beat Heřmanice Slezská 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Heřmanice in Ostrava.