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Heřmanice Slezská vs Havířov — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Heřmanice Slezská
Heřmanice Slezská
FT
2 – 2
Havířov
Havířov
10/30/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 1Stadion Heřmanice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Heřmanice Slezská17%
×Draw17%
Havířov66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heřmanice Slezská
1.31
Havířov
2.71

Havířov creates 107% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 75 away

creates per match

Heřmanice Slezská
1.00
Havířov
2.01

allows per match

Heřmanice Slezská
3.42
Havířov
1.61

finishing

Heřmanice Slezská+0.00on par
Havířov+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heřmanice Slezská ↓

Havířov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Heřmanice Slezská or draw
34%
Heřmanice Slezská or Havířov
83%
Draw or Havířov
83%

Winning margin

Heřmanice Slezská wins by 2+
7%
Havířov wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Heřmanice Slezská 1+ goals
73%
Heřmanice Slezská 2+ goals
38%
Heřmanice Slezská 3+ goals
14%
Havířov 1+ goals
93%
Havířov 2+ goals
75%
Havířov 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Heřmanice Slezská (draw refunded)
20%
Havířov (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heřmanice Slezská at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.42 · 19 matches

Havířov away — creates 2.01, concedes 1.61 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heřmanice Slezská attack 1.00 + Havířov defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.31

Havířov attack 2.01 + Heřmanice Slezská defence 3.42 → ÷2 → 2.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Heřmanice Slezská scores more
17%
level
17%
Havířov scores more
66%

Havířov at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Havířov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Heřmanice Slezská vs Havířov

Heřmanice Slezská and Havířov drew 2-2 in 4. liga - Divizie F on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Heřmanice in Ostrava.