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Heřmanice Slezská vs Bospor Bohumín — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Heřmanice Slezská
Heřmanice Slezská
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Bospor Bohumín
Bospor Bohumín
4/9/20224. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 17Stadion Heřmanice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Heřmanice Slezská17%
×Draw17%
Bospor Bohumín66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Heřmanice Slezská
1.27
Bospor Bohumín
2.62

Bospor Bohumín creates 106% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 77 away

creates per match

Heřmanice Slezská
1.00
Bospor Bohumín
1.81

allows per match

Heřmanice Slezská
3.42
Bospor Bohumín
1.55

finishing

Heřmanice Slezská+0.00on par
Bospor Bohumín+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heřmanice Slezská ↓

Bospor Bohumín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Heřmanice Slezská or draw
34%
Heřmanice Slezská or Bospor Bohumín
83%
Draw or Bospor Bohumín
83%

Winning margin

Heřmanice Slezská wins by 2+
7%
Bospor Bohumín wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Heřmanice Slezská 1+ goals
72%
Heřmanice Slezská 2+ goals
36%
Heřmanice Slezská 3+ goals
14%
Bospor Bohumín 1+ goals
93%
Bospor Bohumín 2+ goals
73%
Bospor Bohumín 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Heřmanice Slezská (draw refunded)
20%
Bospor Bohumín (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heřmanice Slezská at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.42 · 19 matches

Bospor Bohumín away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.55 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heřmanice Slezská attack 1.00 + Bospor Bohumín defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Bospor Bohumín attack 1.81 + Heřmanice Slezská defence 3.42 → ÷2 → 2.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Heřmanice Slezská scores more
17%
level
17%
Bospor Bohumín scores more
66%

Bospor Bohumín at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Bospor Bohumín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Heřmanice Slezská 0–4 Bospor Bohumín

Bospor Bohumín beat Heřmanice Slezská 4-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Heřmanice in Ostrava.