Heřmanice Slezská 0–6 Bílovec: Result & Stats

Heřmanice Slezská

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 5

Bílovec

4/30/2022

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 20Stadion Heřmanice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Heřmanice Slezská17%

×Draw18%

Bílovec65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Heřmanice SlezskáExpected goals in this matchBílovec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

2.52

Heřmanice Slezská

1.22

Bílovec

2.52

Bílovec creates 107% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 71 away

1.00

creates per match

1.63

3.42

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Heřmanice Slezská

1.00

Bílovec

1.63

allows per match

Heřmanice Slezská

3.42

Bílovec

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heřmanice Slezská+0.00on par

Bílovec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heřmanice Slezská ↓

Bílovec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–28%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Heřmanice Slezská or draw

35%

Heřmanice Slezská or Bílovec

82%

Draw or Bílovec

83%

Winning margin

Heřmanice Slezská wins by 2+

6%

Bílovec wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

Heřmanice Slezská 1+ goals

70%

Heřmanice Slezská 2+ goals

34%

Heřmanice Slezská 3+ goals

12%

Bílovec 1+ goals

92%

Bílovec 2+ goals

71%

Bílovec 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Heřmanice Slezská (draw refunded)

21%

Bílovec (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heřmanice Slezská at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.42 · 19 matches

Bílovec away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.44 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heřmanice Slezská attack 1.00 + Bílovec defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Bílovec attack 1.63 + Heřmanice Slezská defence 3.42 → ÷2 → 2.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Heřmanice Slezská scores more

17%

level

18%

Bílovec scores more

65%

Bílovec at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Bílovec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff