Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Herlev vs Karlslunde — 3. Division 2021

Herlev
Herlev
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Karlslunde
Karlslunde
5/14/20223. Division3. Division · Relegation Round - 5Herlev Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Herlev34%
×Draw23%
Karlslunde43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Herlev
1.59
Karlslunde
1.81

Karlslunde creates 14% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Herlev
1.06
Karlslunde
1.50

allows per match

Herlev
2.13
Karlslunde
2.13

finishing

Herlev+0.00on par
Karlslunde+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Herlev ↓

Karlslunde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Herlev or draw
57%
Herlev or Karlslunde
77%
Draw or Karlslunde
66%

Winning margin

Herlev wins by 2+
16%
Karlslunde wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Herlev 1+ goals
80%
Herlev 2+ goals
47%
Herlev 3+ goals
21%
Karlslunde 1+ goals
84%
Karlslunde 2+ goals
54%
Karlslunde 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Herlev (draw refunded)
44%
Karlslunde (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Herlev at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.13 · 16 matches

Karlslunde away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Herlev attack 1.06 + Karlslunde defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.59

Karlslunde attack 1.50 + Herlev defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Herlev scores more
34%
level
23%
Karlslunde scores more
43%

Karlslunde at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Karlslunde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Herlev vs Karlslunde

Karlslunde beat Herlev 4-1 in 3. Division on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Herlev Stadion in Herlev.