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Herentals vs Tenax — Premier Soccer League 2026

Herentals
Herentals
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tenax
Tenax
8/28/2022Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 25National Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Herentals58%
×Draw26%
Tenax16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Herentals
1.50
Tenax
0.65

Herentals creates 131% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 17 away

creates per match

Herentals
1.17
Tenax
0.47

allows per match

Herentals
0.83
Tenax
1.82

finishing

Herentals+0.00on par
Tenax+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Herentals ↓

Tenax →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Herentals or draw
84%
Herentals or Tenax
74%
Draw or Tenax
42%

Winning margin

Herentals wins by 2+
30%
Tenax wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Herentals 1+ goals
78%
Herentals 2+ goals
44%
Herentals 3+ goals
19%
Tenax 1+ goals
48%
Tenax 2+ goals
14%
Tenax 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Herentals (draw refunded)
78%
Tenax (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Herentals at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 96 matches

Tenax away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Herentals attack 1.17 + Tenax defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.50

Tenax attack 0.47 + Herentals defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Herentals scores more
58%
level
26%
Tenax scores more
16%

Herentals at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Herentals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Herentals 3–1 Tenax

Herentals beat Tenax 3-1 in Premier Soccer League on August 28, 2022.

The match was played at National Sports Stadium in Harare.