Herentals 1–0 Ngezi Platinum: Result & Stats

Herentals

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ngezi Platinum

J. Zhuwawo 79'

5/17/2025

Premier Soccer League · Round 12Rufaro Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Herentals38%

×Draw33%

Ngezi Platinum30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HerentalsExpected goals in this matchNgezi Platinum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

0.83

Herentals

0.98

Ngezi Platinum

0.83

Herentals creates 18% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 100 away

1.17

creates per match

0.87

0.80

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Herentals

1.17

Ngezi Platinum

0.87

allows per match

Herentals

0.80

Ngezi Platinum

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Herentals+0.00on par

Ngezi Platinum+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Herentals ↓

Ngezi Platinum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Herentals or draw

70%

Herentals or Ngezi Platinum

67%

Draw or Ngezi Platinum

62%

Winning margin

Herentals wins by 2+

14%

Ngezi Platinum wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Herentals 1+ goals

62%

Herentals 2+ goals

26%

Herentals 3+ goals

8%

Ngezi Platinum 1+ goals

56%

Ngezi Platinum 2+ goals

20%

Ngezi Platinum 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Herentals (draw refunded)

56%

Ngezi Platinum (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Herentals at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.80 · 96 matches

Ngezi Platinum away — creates 0.87, concedes 0.79 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Herentals attack 1.17 + Ngezi Platinum defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.98

Ngezi Platinum attack 0.87 + Herentals defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Herentals scores more

38%

level

33%

Ngezi Platinum scores more

30%

Herentals at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Herentals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

79'

J. Zhuwawo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff