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Herentals vs Chegutu Pirates — Premier Soccer League 2026

Herentals
Herentals
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chegutu Pirates
Chegutu Pirates
11/6/2024Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 32Rufaro Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Herentals45%
×Draw34%
Chegutu Pirates21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Herentals
1.02
Chegutu Pirates
0.59

Herentals creates 73% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 17 away

creates per match

Herentals
1.17
Chegutu Pirates
0.35

allows per match

Herentals
0.83
Chegutu Pirates
0.88

finishing

Herentals+0.00on par
Chegutu Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Herentals ↓

Chegutu Pirates →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–112%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Herentals or draw
79%
Herentals or Chegutu Pirates
66%
Draw or Chegutu Pirates
55%

Winning margin

Herentals wins by 2+
18%
Chegutu Pirates wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Herentals 1+ goals
64%
Herentals 2+ goals
27%
Herentals 3+ goals
8%
Chegutu Pirates 1+ goals
45%
Chegutu Pirates 2+ goals
12%
Chegutu Pirates 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Herentals (draw refunded)
68%
Chegutu Pirates (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Herentals at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 96 matches

Chegutu Pirates away — creates 0.35, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Herentals attack 1.17 + Chegutu Pirates defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.02

Chegutu Pirates attack 0.35 + Herentals defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Herentals scores more
45%
level
34%
Chegutu Pirates scores more
21%

Herentals at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Herentals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Herentals 1–0 Chegutu Pirates

Herentals beat Chegutu Pirates 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on November 6, 2024.

The match was played at Rufaro Stadium in Harare.