Herentals 1–1 Black Rhinos: Result & Stats

Herentals

FT

1 – 1

Black Rhinos

11/27/2021

Premier Soccer League · Round 2National Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Herentals43%

×Draw32%

Black Rhinos25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HerentalsExpected goals in this matchBlack Rhinos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.75

Herentals

1.09

Black Rhinos

0.75

Herentals creates 45% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 51 away

1.17

creates per match

0.67

0.83

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Herentals

1.17

Black Rhinos

0.67

allows per match

Herentals

0.83

Black Rhinos

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Herentals+0.00on par

Black Rhinos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Herentals ↓

Black Rhinos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Herentals or draw

75%

Herentals or Black Rhinos

68%

Draw or Black Rhinos

57%

Winning margin

Herentals wins by 2+

18%

Black Rhinos wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Herentals 1+ goals

66%

Herentals 2+ goals

30%

Herentals 3+ goals

10%

Black Rhinos 1+ goals

53%

Black Rhinos 2+ goals

17%

Black Rhinos 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Herentals (draw refunded)

63%

Black Rhinos (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Herentals at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 96 matches

Black Rhinos away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Herentals attack 1.17 + Black Rhinos defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.09

Black Rhinos attack 0.67 + Herentals defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Herentals scores more

43%

level

32%

Black Rhinos scores more

25%

Herentals at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Herentals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff