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Herentals vs Bikita Minerals — Premier Soccer League 2026

Herentals
Herentals
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bikita Minerals
Bikita Minerals
6/1/2024Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 1Rufaro Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Herentals50%
×Draw30%
Bikita Minerals20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Herentals
1.25
Bikita Minerals
0.68

Herentals creates 84% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 34 away

creates per match

Herentals
1.17
Bikita Minerals
0.53

allows per match

Herentals
0.83
Bikita Minerals
1.32

finishing

Herentals+0.00on par
Bikita Minerals+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Herentals ↓

Bikita Minerals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Herentals or draw
80%
Herentals or Bikita Minerals
70%
Draw or Bikita Minerals
50%

Winning margin

Herentals wins by 2+
23%
Bikita Minerals wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Herentals 1+ goals
71%
Herentals 2+ goals
36%
Herentals 3+ goals
13%
Bikita Minerals 1+ goals
49%
Bikita Minerals 2+ goals
15%
Bikita Minerals 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Herentals (draw refunded)
71%
Bikita Minerals (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Herentals at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 96 matches

Bikita Minerals away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Herentals attack 1.17 + Bikita Minerals defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Bikita Minerals attack 0.53 + Herentals defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Herentals scores more
50%
level
30%
Bikita Minerals scores more
20%

Herentals at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Herentals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Herentals vs Bikita Minerals

Herentals and Bikita Minerals drew 1-1 in Premier Soccer League on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Rufaro Stadium in Harare.