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Hércules vs Yeclano — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Hércules
Hércules
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Yeclano
Yeclano
2/2/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22Estadio José Rico Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hércules43%
×Draw30%
Yeclano26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hércules
1.17
Yeclano
0.84

Hércules creates 39% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Hércules
1.45
Yeclano
0.84

allows per match

Hércules
0.84
Yeclano
0.89

finishing

Hércules+0.00on par
Yeclano+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hércules ↓

Yeclano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Hércules or draw
74%
Hércules or Yeclano
70%
Draw or Yeclano
57%

Winning margin

Hércules wins by 2+
19%
Yeclano wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hércules 1+ goals
69%
Hércules 2+ goals
33%
Hércules 3+ goals
11%
Yeclano 1+ goals
57%
Yeclano 2+ goals
21%
Yeclano 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Hércules (draw refunded)
62%
Yeclano (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hércules at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.84 · 38 matches

Yeclano away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hércules attack 1.45 + Yeclano defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.17

Yeclano attack 0.84 + Hércules defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hércules scores more
43%
level
30%
Yeclano scores more
26%

Hércules at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hércules will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hércules vs Yeclano

Hércules and Yeclano drew 2-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 2, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio José Rico Pérez in Alicante.