Hércules 2–0 Real Murcia: Result & Stats

Hércules

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Real Murcia

9/21/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Estadio José Rico Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Hércules41%

×Draw29%

Real Murcia31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HérculesExpected goals in this matchReal Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.01

Hércules

1.21

Real Murcia

1.01

Hércules creates 20% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 76 away

1.45

creates per match

1.18

0.84

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Hércules

1.45

Real Murcia

1.18

allows per match

Hércules

0.84

Real Murcia

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hércules+0.00on par

Real Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hércules ↓

Real Murcia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Hércules or draw

69%

Hércules or Real Murcia

71%

Draw or Real Murcia

59%

Winning margin

Hércules wins by 2+

18%

Real Murcia wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hércules 1+ goals

70%

Hércules 2+ goals

34%

Hércules 3+ goals

12%

Real Murcia 1+ goals

64%

Real Murcia 2+ goals

27%

Real Murcia 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Hércules (draw refunded)

57%

Real Murcia (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hércules at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.84 · 38 matches

Real Murcia away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hércules attack 1.45 + Real Murcia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.21

Real Murcia attack 1.18 + Hércules defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hércules scores more

41%

level

29%

Real Murcia scores more

31%

Hércules at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hércules will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hércules vs Real Murcia

Hércules beat Real Murcia 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio José Rico Pérez in Alicante.

Hércules vs Real Murcia — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hércules vs Real Murcia